Bob’s 2024 Residential Real Estate Market Prediction

 

Executive Summary

Most observers seem to agree that we will continue to have low inventory and moderately high mortgage rates. As a result, most of the year will be a seller’s market much like last fall, where there are one or two offers with negotiations. However in the second quarter there may be higher activity in the second quarter with multiple offers and sellers more in the driver’s seat.

 

Introduction

As we start a new year we would do well to try and understand what the market will be like over the next twelve months. Like everyone else, my crystal ball is pretty cloudy, but we can take some educated guesses. Most everyone agrees that there is a lot of pent-up demand. There are many interested buyers, but there are two significant obstacles for them, and therefore the market.

It is important to note that Real Estate is hyper local. This prediction is primarily for southern Frederick County and Northern Montgomery County. Down county in Rockville, Bethesda and Chevy Chase may be completely different.

Low Inventory

The first issue is availability of properties to buy. We have been experiencing historically low inventory for the last five plus years and it was particularly low in 2023. Inventory was trending lower before the pandemic, and of course was exacerbated by the pandemic. Here are some of the reasons behind the lack of inventory:

o   Remote work – with the maturation of cell phones, internet tools, cloud computing and storage, people can work from wherever they are thereby reducing the need to relocation for a new job.   

o   Low locked in mortgage rates – many people refinanced their mortgages, often to less than 3% making them reluctant to take on a new mortgage at a higher rate.

o   Ageing in place – It is much easier for the baby boomer generation to age in place than in the past. As of 2021 they owned 44.1% of all real estate in the U.S. keeping many homes out of the market.

o   Lack of new home construction – Since the great recession in 2007/2008, new home construction has not kept up with demand. Exacerbating this problem are materials supply chain issues, labor shortages and increases in the material cost.

o   Governmental policies - The U.S. has failed to keep up with the housing demands of a continually increasing population. These policies may include:

·       Zoning and permits for new home construction.

·       Limiting the types of housing

Unfortunately, low inventory becomes a cyclical issue. When people feel like they cannot find a place to buy or rent, they don’t want to sell their home and be homeless.

Interest Rates

The second issue is interest rates. Interest rates have skyrocketed over the last two years, going from 2.66% at the end of 2021 to a max of 7.79% in late October 2023 and finally back down to 6.6% at the time of this writing on 1/15/2024. These higher rates have made it very difficult for buyers, particularly younger buyers, to qualify for a loan for the home they want. They will wait for the interest rate to come down to be able to afford the right home.

For most observers, the robustness of the market hinges on interest rates. Many see interest rates going down this year, however not as much as we would like. The thought is that the rates will be reduced modestly in the first quarter, and then loosened some as the year goes on. The consensus seems to be the year will close with interest rates just above 6%, and even lower in 2025.

While this is good news, unfortunately, we live in an extremely volatile world today where world events can impact those rates. Globally, there are several wars that can impact our economy. The war around Israel/Iran region is threating to grow substantially. Ukraine is begging for more support against Russia. China is flexing their muscles in a threateningly way too. We also have an increasingly bitter political division within our own country with a presidential election where the results will probably be contested with much turmoil.

On that last point, presidential elections also tend to have a suppressive effect on the Real Estate market. This is because the prospect of a new president tends to create uncertainty about the future economy, and homebuyers become more cautious as a result. People feel more comfortable with one of the largest financial transactions of their lives when they know the result.

What is coming in the next year?

So, what does all this mean for the market over the next year. By traditional measurements, it will be a seller’s market for the first quarter a lot like the last quarter. However, it will probably feel like a normal market where there are one or two offers with negotiations between buyers and sellers. Spring will probably be a stronger seller’s market quite possibly with multiple offers returning. The balance of the year will probably be more like the first quarter unless interest rates fall below 6%. All in all, it is probably a good year to sell if you know where you are moving to. 

If you are considering selling your home, whether in the next six months or the next few years, I would be happy to help you. If you are still on the fence, please use me as a sounding board; You will not get pressure from me to move, just what I hope is a helpful conversation.

Finally, if you found this article helpful and you know of someone who is planning to buy or sell, I would appreciate your referral. Call/text me at 301-873-2106 or email me at BReynolds@LNF.com. We will get you taken care of.

 

Do you need Home Title Lock?

 

Have you seen the commercials for the Home Title Lock company's service or something similar? Do they provoke a sense of fear or concern about your home being taken away from you by a scammer and not even know it? I have to say that every time I see one of those commercials, I get a little queasy. I sure as heck don't want someone to be able to take my home and/or cost me tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars. So, I thought I'd take a deeper look at the whole idea.

First let me state that I'm not a real estate lawyer and I'm not giving legal advice here. That said, I'd like to explore with you whether it is necessary to have someone watch your title 24 hours a day seven days a week. Let me also state that my research is only for the state of Maryland; other states may have different risks.

The Maryland Attorney General (AG) has issued a Consumer alert concerning Home Title Lock. The alert says that Title Lock is neither Insurance nor a “Lock” on your home title. It simply is a monitoring service which may alert you to a change (after it happens) and may support you in restoring the title to you. It also says “Title fraud is very rare, and hardly ever successful”. If someone ever tries to transfer your deed without your permission or knowledge, like these title lock companies suggest could happen, “the transfer is fraudulent and void from the outset.”

The bottom line from the AG’s Consumer Alert is that you do not need the service. Today, all of us should be taking steps to protect ourselves from identity theft, after all, title theft is an extension of Identity theft.  You can do most of the work yourself, something you should be doing anyway. In my judgement, one very important recommendation is to consider freezing your credit reports. This makes it difficult for a fraudster to open new accounts in your name. In addition, you should monitor your identity by paying attention to regular bills such as utility bills. If you don’t get one, investigate why. Carefully check your credit reports from Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax, which you can do for free, once a year from each of them. You can even check your title with Maryland’s land records website.

The AG’s alert does not mention any safeguards the county or state has in place to protect your title. However, reading between the lines in the Steps to Recording a Deed in Frederick County Maryland we can find some clues as to what they may be. Here are a couple that I see:

1. Lien Certificate/Tax Status Report – The property must be free of liens. If you have a mortgage on your home, you have a lien. That must be paid off before the property can be transferred. Of course, there could be others.

2. Water bill must be fully paid off.

3. All property taxes must be up to date.

4. Property tax credits must be recaptured, if any.

5. Agricultural Transfer Tax, if any, must be paid.

6. Recordation Tax must be paid (calculated at a rate of $7.00 per $500 of sale price).

The Maryland Land Instrument Intake Sheet is reviewed by at least 3 groups/agencies looking at the above information to be sure they are completed correctly (they have the receipts). There may be other safeguards involved but they are not highlighted anywhere. 

If you are still uncomfortable and don’t mind spending the money (about $200 annually), by all means sign up for one of the title lock services.  The AG’s Consumer alert says Title Theft is “rare” and you don’t need the service. Practice safe Identity procedures and relax.

I hope this post was useful to you. I have included some links below if you are interested in doing a little more research yourself.

Here are some helpful links.

Maryland Attorney General Consumer Alert – Home Title Lock 

Checking your Home’s title

Steps to Recording a Deed in Frederick County Maryland

Steps to recording a Maryland Deed

Protect yourself from identity theft. 

Requesting credit reports

Experian Credit Reports

US Government 

Nerd Wallet

Additional Reasons for Owning Your Home

 

In previous posts I have discussed how owning your own home can help build family wealth, and that part of the reason is the historical trend in the appreciation of residential Real Estate. In this post, I will discuss other reasons to seriously consider buying your own home.

1. Although already covered, it bears repeating that it is likely your new home will increase in value over the long term. This trend will probably continue because this country currently has a shortage of housing. Over the last three to four years, this shortage is one of the three primary reasons for the significant rise in home prices. The other two reasons were artificially low interest rates and over four years of strong economic growth. Interest rates are still historically low, even though higher than the best rates of the last few years. True, the economy is currently sluggish and may get worse before it gets better. The best analysts are still saying that prices will remain the same, or increase very slightly; if prices fall, it probably will not be significant, and will recover fairly rapidly. 

2. In addition to the market driving the increase in home value, you will build home equity with each monthly payment, a solid investment in your future.

3. You can have more control over your monthly housing payment. Principal and Interest do not change over the term of the lease. Escrow payments for insurance and taxes do tend to grow, but usually not at a fast pace. Private Mortgage Insurance, if you have it, is eliminated when your equity reaches 22% of the loan. All of this helps to predict expenses in the long-term.

4. Owning a home also means protection! Studies show as your home’s value appreciates over time, it usually outpaces inflation year over year.

5. You may get a tax deduction. It may be possible to take advantage of a mortgage interest tax deduction and other tax benefits.

6. When you pay your mortgage on time each month, you will build credit, opening other avenues to borrow more money, perhaps for a “better” home in the future or perhaps an investment property or other investment.

7. As the owner of your home, you have the freedom to make it your own. You choose how to modify your home and decorate it the way you want. You don’t have to ask anyone for permission. You have greater privacy and control over your living space. You can own pets without having to worry about landlord rules and added fees. Similarly, if you have a backyard space you may be able to make it your own and help you to enjoy the outdoors.

8. A well-maintained home can offer a sense of pride and accomplishment. It’s yours to do with as you wish. Make the most out of it.

9. The commitment to your home helps build longer-term stability. The whims of an outside force such as a landlord are removed.

10. Surveys show homeownership does, in fact, result in increased happiness, but not to the extent predicted by the future homeowners themselves.

Owning your own home is not always the best solution for everyone or every family. There are perfectly sensible reasons for renting a living space. Only you as an individual know your values and life goals, so you make the decisions. However, home ownership is part of the American dream available to those who want it. Whether you rent or buy, I am available to help you weigh the decision and achieve your goal.

If I can help with these decisions or to find a new place, contact me at 301-873-2106 or email me at BReynolds@LNF.com

News you can use with Boomer Foster (3/6/2023)

Here is this week’s edition of "News You can Use" with Boomer Foster. He is president of our company gives a very brief observation of the Financial and Real Estate Markets. Enjoy.

Summary of topics below:

Good afternoon, in this week's video:

 Economic News [00:10] 

• The Dow finished up almost 1.5% on the back of some negative economic indicators. 
• On Tuesday & Wednesday, the Fed Chief will testify before Congress. We hope to get some clue as to the Fed’s intentions to raise rates from that testimony. 
• On Friday, February employment numbers will be released. 
• 30-year fixed rates went up for the fourth week in a row, from 6.45% to 6.65%. 

 Industry News [01:54] 

• Closed sales were down 40.7 % year over year. Remember, last year at this time, the market was still pretty hot. 
• New Pending's were down 24.6% year over year, but up 6.5% week over week. 
• Showings were down 28.4% year over year, but up 5.7% week over week.