2025 Real Estate Market Predictions for Southern Frederick County

As we enter the new year, it's time to forecast the real estate market for 2025. While predictions often change within months, evaluating recent trends and combining national and local insights can provide a
useful outlook for Southern Frederick County, Maryland (SFC).

My Prediction

Southern Frederick Md. Local Area for Prediction

For early 2025, I anticipate minimal changes from 2024. Inventory levels, consumer debt, and interest rates are likely to remain stable, keeping home prices relatively unchanged. If mortgage rates decrease by a point, pent-up demand could lead to a strong first half of the year. However, significant positive changes may not occur until late 2025 or 2026, as the new administration's policies take effect. These changes, whether through legislation or executive orders, will take time to impact the economy, if they help at all.

Key Factors

1. Mortgage Rates: Predictions suggest rates will stay above 6.5% in 2025. For market gains, rates need to drop below 5.75%. For more details, see my post on Decoding Mortgage Rates.
2. Low Housing Inventory: Inventory in SFC has decreased by 42% since 2020, with no signs of improvement. Telecommuting trends may reverse, potentially affecting inventory levels. The new administration's policies will also limit telecommuting significantly, impacting the market. For more details, see my post on Understanding Low Housing Inventory
3.  Consumer Debt: Credit card debt has surged 32% since May 2021, exceeding $1 trillion.

   

   Consumer Debt

   Delinquency rates are also skyrocketing. Debt affects mortgage qualifications as lenders use the debt-to-income ratio to set borrowing limits. Rising delinquency rates show this problem is not getting better soon. The government is considering temporary limits on credit card interest rates to reduce consumer debt, but that is wishful thinking for now.
4. New Administration Policies: The new administration’s policies are starting to be implemented, with the aim to boost the U.S. economy. Key areas include:
• Housing: A few new federal employees may seek housing in SFC, potentially affecting the market. However, most of them will reside in Montgomery County and Northern Virginia.

o   Deportations of undocumented immigrants could significantly impact the housing market. While precise figures for Frederick County are unavailable, the potential effects are noteworthy. Forced deportations may increase the availability of rental properties, easing that segment of the market. However, properties owned by undocumented individuals could present challenges. Although I am not a lawyer, it is likely that these individuals would retain ownership but must continue making mortgage payments to avoid foreclosure. The resolution of these issues will be interesting to observe.

Self-deportation might result in a more orderly process, allowing individuals to manage their exit more effectively.

• Economic Improvements: Policies on tax cuts, energy independence, deregulation, and government efficiency have the potential to impact the market, though their effects will take time to materialize.

 

Actions to Consider

Timing the market is challenging and not recommended. If you are planning on selling and/or buying soon, contact me now at 301-873-2106. We can get the ball rolling.

If you're planning a move, start preparing now. Buyers should focus on reducing debt, improving credit scores, saving for a down payment. You also need to decide where you want to live. Contact me, I can help with that.

 Sellers should declutter, make minor repairs, and plan their next steps for their future. For more ideas, please see these previous posts: Benefits and Roadblocks When Decluttering, Overcoming the Difficulties of Decluttering, Strategies for Showcasing Your Home for Sale and Transform Your Home from “Just Another Listing”.

I am available to help you act when you think the time is right. If you'd like to discuss your situation, call or text me at 301-873-2106 or email me at BReynolds@LNF.com. I'm here to help with your real estate needs, even if your purchase or sale is in the future. Your referrals are always appreciated.

Let's get started. Contact me at 301-873-2106 or email me at BReynolds@LNF.com.

Understanding Low Housing Inventory: Key Factors Impacting Frederick County Real Estate in 2024

 

 

As we usher in the new year, many are keen to understand what lies ahead for the real estate market. Home sellers, buyers, and investors alike are eager to strategize and achieve their goals in the coming months. 

Before diving into my predictions for the year, I want to lay some groundwork by discussing two key factors that will shape the market: mortgage interest rates and housing inventory. 

In my previous post, I explored the elements that influence mortgage interest rates. Now, let's delve into the significant reasons behind our current low housing inventory. In my next post, I'll share my predictions for the year. 

You've likely heard the saying that real estate, much like politics, is very local. While national trends do play a role, the most impactful drivers are often local. My observations will focus on Southern Frederick County, Maryland, where I conduct most of my business. 

Frederick County is a popular and desirable place to live. It has been growing steadily, is business-friendly, has a reasonably low crime rate, and boasts high-ranking schools. So, why is there a lower housing inventory in Frederick County, MD? Here are some factors contributing to this situation:

 

1. Underbuilding: Despite several new subdivisions being built over the past decade, the construction of new homes may not be keeping pace with demand. This has contributed to a deficit in the housing supply.
2. High Demand: Frederick County's desirable location, excellent schools, and high quality of life drive strong demand for homes. This demand often exceeds the available supply, leading to lower inventory levels.
3. Homeowner Reluctance to Sell: Many homeowners are hesitant to sell their properties for several reasons:
• High Interest Rates: Many people refinanced their home loans when interest rates were very low between 2019 and 2021. Buying a new home at a current rate of 6.5%, compared to their existing 3% loan, would make the purchase more expensive. Additionally, some homeowners may be waiting for even higher prices before deciding to sell.
• Low Inventory: This creates a circular problem. Homeowners are reluctant to sell because they worry they won't find a suitable new home or can't afford to own two homes simultaneously while working out their loans, even though there are strategies to address this issue.
• Seniors Aging in Place: Over the past 15 to 20 years, it has become easier for older adults

  

  Homeowner Equity by Generation
   

  
  to remain in their homes longer. They are in better health, have new ways of managing infirmities, and have often paid off their homes, with no desire to take on a new loan. Unfortunately, they hold a majority of home ownership equity. Nationally, the Silent and Baby Boomer generations hold about 51% of total housing equity. Assuming this is roughly true for Frederick County, a significant percentage of properties are effectively off the market.
4. Economic Stability: Frederick County's relatively stable local economy, with steady job growth and low unemployment rates, encourages people to stay in their homes longer, reducing the number of properties available for sale.
5. Tighter Lending Standards: Stricter lending standards have resulted in fewer distressed properties, such as foreclosures, entering the market. This has also contributed to the lower inventory, as there are fewer homes being sold under duress. 

Understanding the factors behind low housing inventory is crucial for anyone involved in the real estate market. By recognizing the impact of underbuilding, high demand, homeowner reluctance to sell, economic stability, and tighter lending standards, we can better navigate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. Stay tuned for my next post, where I will share my predictions for the real estate market in the coming year. Together, we can make informed decisions and achieve our goals in this dynamic market. 

If you'd like to discuss what's best for you, feel free to call or text me at 301-873-2106 or email me at BReynolds@LNF.com. We can have an open discussion about your circumstances so you can make informed decisions. Remember, I don't do hard sales or pressure you into action—buying or selling your home is entirely up to you. 

As always, I'm here to assist with your real estate needs, even if your purchase or sale is some time away. The better prepared you are, the less stressful the process will be. Finally, if you know anyone looking to buy or sell, your referral would be greatly appreciated. 

Let's get started. Contact me at 301-873-2106 or email me at BReynolds@LNF.com.