What’s Ahead for Southern Frederick County Real Estate (2025–2026)

If you’ve owned your home for a while, especially in places like Ijamsville, Monrovia, or Urbana, you’ve probably seen a lot of changes in the market. And with interest rates, property values, and local development all shifting again, many homeowners are wondering: Is now the right time to make a move?

This blog breaks down what’s happening, what might be coming next, and how it could affect your home and your plans.

What’s Going on with the Economy?

Let’s start with the big picture. The experts are saying there’s a very high chance (almost 100%)1 that interest rates will start coming down soon—possibly as early as this fall. That’s good news for buyers and sellers alike.

Here’s why it matters:

• Lower rates mean more buyers can afford homes, which could increase demand.
• Homeowners with equity may find it easier to refinance, upgrade, or sell.
• Investors may start looking again, especially in areas with older homes and larger lots.

At the same time, inflation is cooling off, people are feeling more confident about their finances, and Southern Frederick County continues to grow2—especially with major job hubs like DC and Baltimore nearby.

Who’s Holding the Most Equity?

One of the biggest trends shaping the market is age. National data shows that older homeowners, especially those over 55, hold most of the home equity. Many of them own their homes outright or have very low mortgages.

Here’s how that plays out locally: 

What to Expect in the Next Year

Here’s a simple forecast for what might happen in our area:

• More homes for sale from longtime owners who are ready to downsize or relocate.
• Renovations and upgrades as homeowners use their equity to improve or age in place.
• First-time buyers entering the market as rates drop and new construction opens up.
• Investors returning, especially in areas with older homes and larger lots.
• More conversations about legacy planning, gifting homes to family, or making smart moves while values are strong.

What Should You Do?

You don’t have to make a big decision right away—but if you’re thinking about your next chapter, here are six smart ways to start:

1. Get a free home value check: Understand what your property is worth today based on local trends and recent sales.
2. Explore Maryland’s senior tax credits: Learn how programs like the Homestead Tax Credit or Senior Property Tax Credit could reduce your annual costs.
3. Consider aging-in-place upgrades: Use your equity to make your home more comfortable and accessible for the years ahead.
4. Talk about legacy planning: Whether you’re thinking about gifting your home to family or preparing for future transitions, it helps to have a plan.
5. Look into downsizing options: If your current home feels too large or high-maintenance, there may be smaller, more manageable homes nearby that still fit your lifestyle.
6. Schedule a no-pressure consultation: I’m happy to walk through your options, answer questions, and help you explore what’s possible—on your timeline, with no obligation. I’m here to help you explore those questions—no pressure, just honest guidance.

Want to talk through your options?

I'm optimistic about the near future. This is a great time to plan your next move. I offer free consultations for homeowners who want to understand their equity or explore their options.

Thank you for reading this article. I would love to meet you and talk about real estate, and perhaps your future plans. If you know anyone else considering a move, I’d be grateful for your referral. I promise to take great care of them.

1 According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, futures markets are currently pricing in a near-99% chance of a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting.” You can explore it directly on CME Group’s FedWatch page.

2 Frederick County is experiencing strong economic and commercial growth, particularly in the southern corridor, with GDP rising to $15.4 billion and significant capital investment and job creation in FY 2025. Major redevelopment plans, including the South Frederick Corridors Plan and Livable Frederick Master Plan, aim to transform this area into a vibrant hub for housing, business, and innovation. Investments in infrastructure, mixed-use development, and workforce housing are central to this vision.

Please note that this post was crafted with support from Microsoft Copilot.

The Maryland Homestead Tax Credit

Did you know that Maryland has a property tax credit that may limit the amount your property taxes increase each year. It is called The Maryland Homestead Tax Credit. The credit limits how much your property assessment increases, thereby limiting your actual tax. My Homestead application was accepted in 2010, but there were no credits until the 2023 thorough 2025 assessments after the covid boom when home prices increased about 30%. We have saved $1,008 since 2023.

We are currently experiencing a very low inventory environment, setting up another boom when ideal conditions recover. I don’t know when that will be, but I expect it to happen. Be sure you have applied for your Maryland Homestead Tax Credit.

Curious about how many people benefit from this credit, I decided to take matters into my own hands. I conducted a little experiment and investigated the records for the homes in the Loch Haven neighborhood in Southern Frederick County, MD. Based on my findings, it seems that about two-thirds of homeowners in this area are taking advantage of the Homestead Tax Credit. While this isn’t an

official statistic, it may give an indication of how widely this program is utilized in the region. If you haven’t explored this credit yet, you might be missing out on an opportunity to save money on your property taxes!

Overview of the Maryland Homestead Tax Credit

The Maryland Homestead Tax Credit is designed to help homeowners manage the financial impact of increasing property assessments. By capping the amount that property assessments can rise each year, it can provide savings on property taxes, making homeownership more affordable for Maryland residents. This credit applies to owner-occupied residential properties and is intended to protect homeowners from dramatic spikes in their property tax bills.

Eligibility Criteria for the Tax Credit

• To qualify for the Maryland Homestead Tax Credit, homeowners must meet several criteria:
• The Property must be the homeowner's principal residence.
• The homeowner must have lived in the property for at least one year.
• The property must be used for residential purposes only.
• The homeowner must apply for the credit by submitting Homestead Tax Credit Eligibility Application (HST)

Applying for the Maryland Homestead Tax Credit involves a straightforward process:

• Homeowners must complete and submit the Homestead Tax Credit Eligibility Application (HST). 
• The application must be submitted by May 1 of the year prior to the year in which the credit is sought.
• Once approved, the credit will be applied to the homeowner's property tax bill automatically each year.

Benefits of the Homestead Tax Credit for Homeowners

The Homestead Tax Credit offers several benefits for Maryland homeowners, including:

• Protection against significant increases in property tax bills due to rising property assessments.
• Stabilization of annual property tax payments, making budgeting easier.
• Potential savings of hundreds or even thousands of dollars annually.

Common Misconceptions About the Tax Credit

Despite its clear benefits, there are several misconceptions about the Maryland Homestead Tax Credit:

Misconception	Reality
The credit lowers the property assessment value.	The credit does not lower the assessment value but caps the amount it can increase each year.
The credit applies only to new homeowners.	Long-term homeowners who meet the eligibility criteria can apply for and benefit from the credit.
The application process is complicated.	The application process is straightforward and can be completed online.

 

Impact on Property Taxes and Home Value

The Homestead Tax Credit can have a significant impact on both property taxes and home value:

·       By capping assessment increases, the credit helps homeowners manage their property tax bills more effectively.

·       While the credit does not directly affect home values, it can make properties a little more affordable and attractive to potential buyers. Homes are assessed every three years, so the lower assessment continues to apply.

Examples of savings:

o   A homeowner with a property assessed at $300,000, with a capped assessment increase of 2%, would save approximately $240 annually if the tax rate is 4%.

o   For a property assessed at $500,000, with a capped assessment increase of 5%, the homeowner could see a saving of around $1,000 annually, assuming a tax rate of 4%.

o   If the tax rate is 3% and a property is assessed at $400,000 with a capped increase of 4%, the savings would be approximately $480 annually.

Capped assessments vary by county or incorporated municipalities. Here is a sample:

• Maryland is capped at 10%
• Frederick County is capped at 5%, except in Walkersville capped at 10% and Mt. Airy 3%.
• Montgomery County is capped at 10%, except in Kensington is 5%
• You can find the full table here.

Frequently Asked Questions

Question	Response
Can I apply for the Homestead Tax Credit if I own multiple properties?	No, the credit applies only to your principal residence.
What happens if I move to a new home?	You will need to apply for the credit again for your new residence.
How will I know if my application is approved?	You will receive confirmation from the Maryland Department of Assessments and Taxation.

 

Resources for Further Information and Assistance

Homeowners can access more information and assistance regarding the Homestead Tax Credit through various resources:

Homestead Tax Credit Eligibility Application (HST)  

• Maryland Department of Assessments and Taxation (SDAT) website. Use this website to view your assessments and status of your application as well as online guides and FAQs. The status is in the lower left corner of the form.
• Tax bill Online Bill Inquiries and Payment Services. Use this website to review your tax bill and payments.
• The Maryland Homestead Tax Credit is a valuable tool for homeowners seeking to manage their property tax obligations. By understanding and applying for this credit, homeowners can enjoy financial benefits and the security of stable tax payments.

Thank you for reading this article. I would love to meet you and talk about real estate, and perhaps your future plans. If you know anyone else considering a move, I’d be grateful for your referral. I promise to take great care of them.

 

 

Hyperlocal Real Estate: Why Neighborhood Trends Matter Most

 

If you follow real estate news, most of the information you’ll come across focuses on national or regional trends. While this broader perspective can be useful—offering insight into the economy and how it might impact our finances, -- it doesn’t address what truly matters when it comes to your home: your local market. High-level stats like housing starts or interest rate trends give us context, but they don’t reflect the specific dynamics of our neighborhoods.

You’ve likely heard the phrase, “Real estate is all about location, location, location,” and that couldn't be more true here in our suburban and rural community. We’re fortunate to live in an area with many HOA-free neighborhoods, mostly single-family homes on generous half-acre to 1.5-acre lots, and top-rated schools. With easy access to Columbia, Baltimore, the I-270 tech corridor, and even Washington, D.C., our location strikes a great balance between convenience and peaceful living. And for those seeking a small-city vibe, Frederick is just a short drive away. Comparing our area to places like Germantown, Rockville, or Bethesda underscores the unique charm of our community.

To illustrate just how local real estate truly is, let’s look at some market statistics comparing Mount Airy, New Market, Ijamsville, with Rockville. While some numbers aren’t directly comparable, the trends reveal important differences:

Category	Mount Airy, New Market, Ijamsville (Data)	Mount Airy, New Market, Ijamsville (% Change)	Rockville (Data)	Rockville (% Change)	Insights
Units Sold	n/a	-19%	n/a	-7%	Both areas saw a decline in units sold year-over-year, with Mount Airy, New Market, and Ijamsville experiencing a sharper drop.
Active Inventory	n/a	+2%	n/a	+14%	Active inventory grew in both markets, but Rockville's inventory increase is notably higher, suggesting more choices for buyers there.
Median Sales Price	$547,225	No Change	$641,500	+18%	Rockville experienced significant price appreciation, while prices remained steady in Mount Airy, New Market, and Ijamsville.
Days on Market	31	+48%	30	+36%	Homes are taking longer to sell in both areas, which may indicate a cooling market overall.
New Listings	n/a	-15%	n/a	-5%	A decrease in new listings suggests that fewer homeowners are entering the market to sell, particularly in Mount Airy, New Market, and Ijamsville.
Current Contracts	n/a	-7%	n/a	-4%	Fewer contracts are being signed year-over-year, with Mount Airy, New Market, and Ijamsville again seeing a larger decline.
Sold vs. List Price	98.6%	-2.8%	101.8%	No Change	Rockville sellers are achieving closer to their asking price, while Mount Airy, New Market, and Ijamsville show a slight decrease in negotiation power.
Months of Supply	2.3	+26%	1.9	+23%	Supply is growing in both markets, indicating that inventory levels are improving slightly, but Rockville's supply remains tighter overall.

Clearly, using data from one area to represent another doesn’t make sense. That’s why I rely on Long & Foster’s (L&F) Market Minute Reports, which provide local insights. For our area, that includes Mount Airy, New Market, and Ijamsville—offering a data sample robust enough to prevent outliers from skewing results.

Real estate, like politics, is hyperlocal. Even within our larger community, the northern part of
Ijamsville can differ significantly from the southern part. When working with clients, I focus on micro-market trends, using comparable areas (see figure 1) with similar characteristics—such as home size, lot size, construction era, and proximity to schools or amenities. These insights help me provide accurate recommendations for pricing homes.

The charts I use during consultations visually present trends over the past six to twelve months, making it easy for clients to understand their market and the reasoning behind my pricing advice. Armed with this data, they can confidently decide on the best listing price for their home.

If you’d like to stay informed about our local market, I’m happy to share L&F’s Market Minute Report monthly. Just let me know, and I’ll add you to the email list! The charts for February 2025 can be found here.

If you would like to see the type of charts I use to recommend list prices, I would be pleased to provide you with a Real Estate Review, in person or by zoom, that shows current local trends and estimates your home's market value. For a more detailed explanation, you can find a description here.

Thank you for reading this article. I would love to meet you and talk about real estate, and perhaps your future plans. If you know anyone else considering a move, I’d be grateful for your referral. I promise to take great care of them.